Justin Higuchi, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
We all know the best music platform to discover new music and for artists to gain virality, right now, yes – right now at this present time is MySpace, right?
No – of course not. And anyone who didn’t migrate with the times, of course, got left behind. Here’s looking at you, Tila Tequila.
Now, of course it’s easy to see this clearly, 20 years later. But what about in 2007?
You see, I’ve seen huge megatrends and movements before, many times coming in the form of music styles and genres, platforms, fashion, and stock market financial tops and bottoms.
Sign of Peaks / Trends Shifting
Here’s what usually happens: A movement takes hold and proceeds for years – and it’s ever so strong. It becomes a wildfire. Individual careers, fortunes, and companies are built on it! Then the trend reaches maximum capacity. Note: This is just about when everyone agrees that this “thing” is going to be “it”…forever. When this moment happens—often, that’s about when it all starts trending downward and starts falling apart.
Why? Generally because we’ve had enough! And the younger generations also always want to distance themselves from the previous generation (including their parents, of course).
This is what happens: Ultimately, a contrary 180-degree movement comes along, and people—sometimes unanimously—put their arms up in the air and proclaim, “That IS right—enough!”
As I’ve mentioned, I’ve seen this happen through music history and experienced in real life. For example:
• ’70s disco replaced punk and new wave (even KISS was making disco records in 1979)
Disco KISS, 1979: When leather met polyester—and nobody saw it coming.
• ’80s hair metal was sent to the graveyard overnight by Nirvana (And yes, OMG, I miss glam metal, i.e., Poison)
• Social media site, Friendster was made was irrelevant by MySpace, which was toppled by Facebook, made “old” by Instagram (sidenote: at one time, Facebook and Instagram were two separate companies and not under META).
Throwback to Lana as Lizzy Grant on MySpace: The original sad girl logging on.
• All the 2000s pop princesses (Katy, Britney, Kelly) were replaced by Billie Eilish virtually overnight.
And yes, the same things happen in financial bubbles. For example: the dot-com crash; the Great Recession, propelled by never-ending real estate delusions; and even the Tulip Mania of 1637, where people actually lost fortunes by buying and speculating on tulip bulbs—WTF?
In essence, it comes down to this: A movement happens—and it’s so strong that eventually the last people and holdouts jump on board. And the collective universe, within the so-called “Borg consciousness,” declares, “THIS is how it shall be!”
That’s often the signal that the megatrend party is over. “It’s over, Johnny. IT’S OVER!”
My Prediction
Based on my latest culturally underground and fringe club experiences, including secret warehouse raves and how the NYC indie artist scene is taking off (including indie sleaze), this is what I think:
How’s that for a bold statement?
Now, yes, TikTok will still break artists, I’m not denying that. I’m not also denying that TikTok is still the go-to platform and will continue to be (for now) the number one marketing tool for labels and artists.
But based on my recent proposals that have been sent out and what I’m trying to sign – right now, this is what I’m seeing:
Most of the key artists I want to sign have fuck all of a TikTok following. As mentioned, they wouldn’t be caught dead doing TikTok.
So, how are these artists breaking?
For one, it’s the live show. Their live shows are insane. I N S A N E. Incredible. It’s life itself! In fact, there’s one artist I’m trying to sign—I’ve never seen a merch line so long in my lifetime!
“The kids,” especially post-pandemic, are discovering what? Music Religion!!! That’s right! And exciting cultural movements in person! Energy! Collective Excitement! People are losing their shit simply being in the present precious moment experiencing something exciting, fresh, edgy, musical, mythical, etc. Something religious, I dare say!
Yes, we are all going to “church” on Saturday morning for the 12 a.m. (or later) benediction!
Here’s the thing—and I’m writing this on my phone on a Saturday morning at a downtown Los Angeles secret warehouse rave at 1 a.m., waiting two hours for this artist I came to check out. I already have a proposal prepared – but after seeing the live show – I’m probably doubling this now.
You see, comparatively, TikTok has NO religion—zero, nada, 0.0. Additionally, most artists who “broke” on TikTok, generally don’t have culture. They don’t “stand” for something.
And while TikTok is entertaining—let’s be real—TikTok is a haphazard and vapid scroll. Even labels (including those laying off 50 percent of their staff as well as their artist rosters) are now discovering (not surprisingly) that careers on TikTok are like vapors. You can see it for a minute, and then it diffuses into nothing.
Let me give you an example. How many Spotify profiles have you seen that look like this streaming profile?:
Song 1: 500,000,000
Song 2: 75,000,000
Song 3: 7,500,000
Song 4: 850,000
Song 5: 350,000
I think we all know what happened here.
One song caught fire (and it might not have even been about the “song” and certainly not the artist). Then, there was an overpriced major label signing frenzy. Sadly, after (shockingly) the viral hit couldn’t be replicated, no one cared about the artist.
That’s right, it turns out people cared about “the moment” or, I dare say sadly, the “sound” / 30 second clip. And they thought it would continue.
As Arnold Schwarzenegger said in Commando, “Wrong.”
I hear they’re holding a plot for Lil Nas X. Ouch.
Anyway—what I’m predicting is TikTok will still be “it” for a while.
However, religious movements, which is what I’m comparing my latest live music experiences to often take hold and root quickly.
Again, I’m making a bold prediction here right now—that TikTok’s hold on breaking new artists (at least the artists that I’m interested in) is running on that aforementioned vapor.
On a larger scale, this shift is becoming evident with some of the biggest breakout artists of 2024. A prime example is Chappell Roan. According to Chartmetric, her Spotify monthly listeners surged dramatically after her live performance at Coachella in April 2024. Every festival appearance since has only fueled this momentum, as word quickly spread about her electrifying stage presence and, yeah, killer dance moves.
Now of course, this could also be fueled by TikTok and viral moments there – but the takeaway is I’m seeing that often now, it’s not the artists themselves making the TikToks, but their fans doing the work.
This is what we all want. Because no artist I ever spoke to actually likes making TikToks.
Courtesy of Chartmetric
Even more telling is a recent report from Luminate, which found that the number one way fans discovered Chappell wasn’t through TikTok or any viral video—it was through word of mouth. That’s right: years of honing her live performance and vocal chops have paid off, and now it’s translating into real, sustainable explosive growth. Perhaps there’s a lesson here: instead of throwing money at TikTok marketing, investing in actual talent development – seems to be a real winning strategy. Gasp. Who would have guessed?
Courtesy of Luminate.
We’re seeing similar trends with other major artists, like Sabrina Carpenter on her Short ‘n’ Sweet Tour, Charli XCX and Troye Sivan’s Sweat concerts, and, of course, TayTay’s record-shattering Eras Tour.
Whether it’s a craving for post-pandemic connection or sheer screen fatigue, live performances are making a huge comeback. And as fans stay present, fully immersed in the experience, artists are proving that putting on an unforgettable show isn’t just a bonus—it’s the new gold standard. (More on that here.)
And it’s worth talking about.
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My prediction—and what happens over and over again—is that the new and younger generation will find their own movement and their OWN new platform. In other words, they’ll find the next TikTok, whatever that might be. And for sure – the new and younger generation doesn’t want anything to do with the generation before it (or their parents). This helps fuel the fire for change.
Now—will there be another platform that becomes the new TikTok? You bet.
Now here’s another wild theory, especially as it applies to live music. All of the above fuels my theory that music trends tend to follow drug culture. What? Say with me here. And as I postulated three years ago—the 2020s drug of choice (or at least around 2021) was not really a “party drug” but “the v a c k s” allowing people to get out again in society (don’t get me started on that).
So, is “live music” the fresh new religion? And even though it’s been years since 2020 and 2021, is being out and absorbing the energy of other humans the new drug of choice?
And—if we look at history—If we go back almost exactly 100 years, here’s a question. What events followed in 1918 after the Spanish Flu? Yes, it was the Roaring Twenties. Party time! And yes, the “club music” at the time was not EDM of course. It was swing music and jazz fueling what were literally dance clubs. Yes, people were clubbing in 1922. At the time, this was actually fresh, cutting edge, exciting. People were dancing, partying, and getting blitzed (despite prohibition).
Are we there again—but different? (As a side note, the Roaring Twenties ended with the 1929 stock market crash and the start of the Great Depression, so take that also for what it’s worth. Note: that’s also a prediction, between you and me.
In summary, if you haven’t been out exploring the fringe music and cultures and secret warehouse parties (even the ones that are my kryptonite, playing happy hardcore, etc.), I’d encourage you to get your butts out there and experience what’s going on.
The new “real” artists are coming – so, please hold the door open for them.
In closing—have we seen the peak of TikTok? I think so. You can mark this post. It won’t happen overnight—but I know where I’m “betting my chips” these days.
Lastly, the best musical experiences are synonymous with a “religious” experience. Luckily, there’s a seat waiting for you in your local church club, though you might not be sitting down.
